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Paste a solicitation summary plus your capability and competitor notes into a single prompt.
Paste a solicitation summary plus your capability and competitor notes into a single prompt. Get back a filled 7-question weighted scorecard with both a weighted-total Pwin band and a Shipley composite Pwin, a bid-cost-to-value ratio, a 1-page gate-review memo, and (when the verdict is CONDITIONAL) a 14-day capture action list. A 2-hour bid/no-bid exercise collapsed into 15 minutes. The fast, low-cost on-ramp to the fuller Bid/No-Bid Gate Brief Generator skill — start here, upgrade when you need the VP-level gate deck.
Ships as one download · pursuit-decision-matrix.zip · 5 files
A redacted example of what this tool produces — so you can judge the quality before you buy.
These three examples show what the prompts produce with realistic intakes. They cover the three gate variants and the three possible verdicts: GO (Example 1, Bid gate), NO-GO (Example 2, Recompete gate), and CONDITIONAL with full 14-day capture plan (Example 3, Pursue gate).
All companies and contract numbers are fictional. Agency offices (ACC-APG, HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce, DLA Aviation), NAICS codes, PSC codes, SBA size standards, and Section M conventions are accurate. The examples demonstrate the quality bar: every domain rule encoded, every score with a one-sentence rationale citing a specific intake field, zero banned words, zero fabricated CPARS scores or Sol# values, dual Pwin (weighted-total + Shipley composite) surfaced in every scorecard.
Scenario: Sentinel Strand Cyber receives a final RFP from ACC-APG for cyber engineering support services. Set-aside SDVOSBC, NAICS 541512, $5M ceiling, 21-day response window. Vendor holds FCL Secret, CMMC L2 in progress, three relevant DoD past performance citations. Prior CO engagement at industry day six months ago. Two competitors known. B&P estimated at $45K (0.9% of value).
Prompts run: Prompt 1 Variant B, then Prompt 2 Variant B. Verdict is GO — Prompt 3 (capture action list) is NOT produced.
{{opportunity_title}}: Cyber Operations Engineering Support Services
{{notice_id}}: W56KGY-26-R-0042
{{agency}}: DoD / Army / ACC-APG (Aberdeen Proving Ground)
{{notice_type}}: Solicitation
{{naics_code}}: 541512 Computer Systems Design Services
{{psc_code}}: D316 IT and Telecom — Cybersecurity and Data Backup
{{set_aside_code}}: SDVOSBC
{{contract_type}}: FFP
{{contract_vehicle}}: Direct open-market
{{period_of_performance}}: 1 base year + 4 options
{{estimated_value}}: $5M ceiling
{{response_deadline}}: 21 calendar days from posting (deadline 2026-06-06 1400 ET)
{{solicitation_summary}}: "ACC-APG seeks cyber operations engineering support for an Army acquisition program office at Aberdeen Proving Ground. Scope includes zero-trust architecture design, ICAM federation engineering, RMF eMASS package authoring for ATO submissions, post-ATO continuous monitoring tuning, and CMMC Level 2 readiness consultation. Section L: Technical Volume 30 pages, Past Performance Volume 10 pages (5 citations max, within last 5 years), Management Volume 15 pages, Cost Volume unrestricted. Section M: Best value trade-off. Factor 1 Technical Approach (35%), Factor 2 Past Performance (30%), Factor 3 Management Approach (15%), Factor 4 Cost/Price (20%). Non-price factors significantly more important than price."
{{section_m_factors}}: Best value trade-off. Factor 1 Technical Approach 35%, Factor 2 Past Performance 30%, Factor 3 Management Approach 15%, Factor 4 Cost/Price 20%. Non-price factors significantly more important than price.
{{incumbent}}: (blank — new requirement, no prior contract)
{{vendor_name}}: Sentinel Strand Cyber, LLC
{{set_aside_certifications}}: SDVOSBC
{{capability_statement_relevance}}: We design and implement zero-trust network architectures for DoD program offices, including Microsoft Entra ID hardening, ICAM federation, and CMMC Level 2 gap remediation. We deliver RMF eMASS package authoring for ATO submissions and post-ATO continuous monitoring tuning. Direct match to ACC-APG's stated SOW scope — same five capability domains.
{{past_performance_citations}}:
- NIWC Atlantic Charleston — ICAM federation rollout across three NMCI enclaves; $1.4M; FY24; ATO granted Q2 2024.
- ACC-APG Aberdeen — zero-trust pilot for an Army acquisition program office; value withheld; FY24; deployed to 240 endpoints, passed CMMC L2 readiness review.
- AFLCMC Hanscom — RMF package authoring for a tactical comms platform refresh; $780K; FY24; ATO granted Q4 2024.
{{key_personnel}}: Jane Doe — Volume 1 Technical Lead, CISSP, 12 years zero-trust architecture, prior NIWC delivery. John Smith — Past Performance Volume, former AFLCMC contracting officer, 15 years federal acquisition. Maria Garcia — Volume 3 Management, PMP, prior NIWC PM. Volume 4 Cost: contracted to outside pricing consultant.
{{security_clearances}}: FCL Secret, 5 cleared staff (2 TS, 3 Secret)
{{cmmc_level}}: Level 2 in progress (C3PAO assessment scheduled Q3 2026)
{{contract_vehicles_held}}: GSA MAS 47QTCA22D00XX (SINs 54151HACS, 54151S); SeaPort-NxG sub on Team Falcon prime N00178-22-D-7142
{{customer_relationship_signal}}: Two CO calls in past 6 months (introduction call + technical scope clarification). Attended ACC-APG industry day Q1 2026. Submitted Sources Sought response 6 months prior. PM exchanged emails on RMF tooling questions.
{{likely_bidders}}: Two named SDVOSBC competitors per HigherGov intel: ABC Cyber Inc. (incumbent on adjacent ACC-APG cyber contract), XYZ Technologies (recent NIWC delivery). Estimate 4-6 total bidders.
{{incumbent_vulnerability_notes}}: (blank — new requirement)
{{teaming_options}}: Apex Defense Holdings (large prime, holds CIO-SP4 small business pool) available as sub if needed for additional PP.
{{bp_estimate}}: $45,000
{{active_proposals_in_window}}: 1
{{strategic_fit_notes}}: Anchors ACC-APG as a target customer; pairs with our SeaPort-NxG vehicle for cross-pursuit positioning; ACC-APG zero-trust pilot PP is direct fit.
{{weight_override}}: (blank — use defaults)
{{gate_variant}}: Bid
{{sole_source_flag}}: No
Delivery · Copy-paste
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Synthesizes a recompete lessons-learned memo, theme-refresh recommendation, and risk register from pasted prior…
Paste a pursuit stub, a customer-contact log, and a few capture context fields into three prompts.
SCORECARD — Cyber Operations Engineering Support Services
Gate: Bid (post-RFP)
Vendor: Sentinel Strand Cyber, LLC
Agency: DoD / Army / ACC-APG (Aberdeen Proving Ground)
Notice: W56KGY-26-R-0042 / Solicitation
NAICS / PSC / Set-aside: 541512 / D316 / SDVOSBC
Contract type / Vehicle: FFP / Direct open-market
Estimated value: $5M ceiling
Response deadline: 21 calendar days (2026-06-06 1400 ET)
Section M factors (if extracted): Best value trade-off. Tech 35%, PP 30%, Mgmt 15%, Cost 20%. Non-price significantly more important than price.
| # | Dimension | Score (1-5) | Weight | Weighted | Rationale (one sentence) |
|---|------------------------------------|-------------|--------|----------|------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1 | Customer Relationship & Knowledge | 4 | 20% | 0.80 | Two CO calls plus industry day attendance plus Sources Sought response plus PM email exchange per {{customer_relationship_signal}}; strong but not requirement-shaped. |
| 2 | Solution Fit & Capability Match | 4 | 20% | 0.80 | Capability statement maps directly to all five SOW domains (zero-trust, ICAM, RMF, continuous monitoring, CMMC L2) per {{capability_statement_relevance}}; Section M Factor 1 Technical Approach 35% favors this. |
| 3 | Past Performance Relevance | 4 | 15% | 0.60 | Three DoD cyber PP citations including direct ACC-APG prior zero-trust pilot per {{past_performance_citations}}; Section M Factor 2 PP 30% rewards relevance over count. |
| 4 | Competitive Landscape & Pwin | 3 | 15% | 0.45 | Two named SDVOSBC competitors plus 2-4 unnamed bidders per {{likely_bidders}}; ABC Cyber Inc. holds adjacent ACC-APG contract — competitive but not dominated. |
| 5 | Strategic Fit | 4 | 10% | 0.40 | Anchors ACC-APG as target customer; SeaPort-NxG vehicle covers contract type per {{strategic_fit_notes}}. |
| 6 | Bid Cost vs Contract Value (ROI) | 4 | 10% | 0.40 | B&P $45K / $5M value = 0.9% — well under 3% threshold per {{bp_estimate}} and {{estimated_value}}. |
| 7 | Resource & Schedule Feasibility | 4 | 10% | 0.40 | Three named Volume leads (Doe / Smith / Garcia) plus outside pricing consultant for Volume 4 per {{key_personnel}}; one other active proposal per {{active_proposals_in_window}} — within bench capacity. |
| | TOTAL | | 100% | 3.85 | |
Weighted total: 3.85 of 5
Pwin band (from weighted total): 40-60%
Composite Pwin (Shipley): (4/5) × (4/5) × (3/5) × (4/5) × 100% = 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.6 × 0.8 = 30.7%
Bid-cost-to-value: 0.9%
Page-budget feasibility: Feasible — three named Volume leads identified (Doe / Smith / Garcia) plus outside Volume 4 pricing consultant. 30/10/15 page Technical/PP/Mgmt structure within team capacity given one parallel proposal.
Verdict: GO
Section M anchoring: Factor 1 Technical 35% and Factor 2 PP 30% favor Sentinel Strand's direct domain match and ACC-APG prior performance. Factor 3 Management 15% is addressable. Factor 4 Cost 20% is the price-discipline lever.
Set-aside check: Eligible — vendor holds SDVOSBC matching {{set_aside_code}}.
Footer notes: Composite Pwin (30.7%) diverges from weighted-total band (40-60%) by approximately 15 points — band reflects the more conservative read (low end of 40-60% with watchful eye); verdict GO holds because Section M Factor 1 and Factor 2 weighting strongly favors direct technical match and direct prior PP.
MEMO: Bid/No-Bid Recommendation — Cyber Operations Engineering Support Services
DATE: 2026-05-16
AGENCY: DoD / Army / ACC-APG (Aberdeen Proving Ground)
NOTICE: W56KGY-26-R-0042 / Solicitation
GATE: Bid (post-RFP)
VERDICT: GO
PWIN BAND: 40-60% (low end — composite Pwin diverges)
COMPOSITE PWIN (Shipley): 30.7%
BID-COST-TO-VALUE: 0.9%
ESTIMATED VALUE: $5M ceiling
RESPONSE DEADLINE: 2026-06-06 1400 ET (21 days)
CONTRACT TYPE / VEHICLE: FFP / Direct open-market
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Bid recommended. Section M weights Technical Approach 35% and Past Performance 30%, and Sentinel Strand Cyber maps directly to all five SOW domains with a same-customer ACC-APG zero-trust pilot in the PP file. B&P at 0.9% of value clears the ROI threshold comfortably. The composite Pwin (30.7%) diverges below the weighted-total band — keep the bid tight on Factor 1 Technical narrative and protect against over-confidence on customer-shaping (CO touches exist but the requirement was not vendor-shaped).
STRENGTHS
- Section M Factor 1 Technical Approach 35% — direct domain match on zero-trust, ICAM, RMF, continuous monitoring, and CMMC L2 per the capability statement; same five domains in the SOW.
- Section M Factor 2 Past Performance 30% — three DoD cyber PP citations including the directly-relevant ACC-APG zero-trust pilot (same customer, same scope).
- SDVOSBC certification matches set-aside; FCL Secret with 5 cleared staff matches ACC-APG cleared-work expectations.
- Section L page budget (30 Tech / 10 PP / 15 Mgmt) is feasible — three named Volume leads plus contracted pricing consultant.
- CMMC L2 assessment scheduled Q3 2026 aligns with the SOW's CMMC L2 readiness consultation scope.
GAPS
- Section M Factor 2 PP allows up to 5 citations; vendor has 3 (low severity — three direct beats five tangential, but consider PPQ outreach).
- Section M Factor 3 Management 15% — Volume 3 lead Garcia has NIWC PM history but no ACC-APG PM history (medium severity).
- Volume 4 Cost is outsourced to a pricing consultant — coordinate aggressively to avoid Cost narrative drift from Technical narrative.
- No teaming partner engaged; if PPQ outreach fails on one citation, consider Apex Defense sub role for additional ACC-APG PP coverage.
KEY RISKS
- Competitive Landscape: ABC Cyber Inc. holds an adjacent ACC-APG cyber contract and is a likely bidder per {{likely_bidders}} — strong PP risk.
- Composite Pwin (30.7%) trails the weighted-total band — the customer-shaping signal is moderate, not strong; protect against over-confidence on Customer Relationship score.
- Section M does not yet specify PP citation recency cap beyond 5 years; confirm via Q&A whether FY24 citations are weighted equally to FY25.
CONDITIONS FOR GO (CONDITIONAL only)
[Not applicable — verdict is GO.]
RECOMMENDED NEXT ACTION
Write proposal; assemble Pink Team by 2026-05-23 (Day 7); schedule Red Team for Day 14; submit by 2026-06-06.
FOOTER NOTES
Composite Pwin diverges from weighted-total band by ~15 points — band shown at low end of 40-60% with watchful posture. Defaults applied for weights (no override).
[Word count of memo body, excluding the header block: approximately 410 words. Within the 400-500 single-page target.]
Scenario: Larkspur Civic Strategy targets a re-compete at HHS HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce for program evaluation support services. Incumbent is mid-size firm with 4-year history, all three option years exercised, no public mods, stable key personnel — entrenched. Larkspur has no prior HRSA work, EDWOSB cert, two adjacent civilian past performance citations, no customer touches.
Prompts run: Prompt 1 Variant C, then Prompt 2 Variant C. Verdict is NO-GO — Prompt 3 (capture action list) is NOT produced.
{{opportunity_title}}: HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce Program Evaluation Support Services (Recompete)
{{notice_id}}: HRSA-26-Q-0017
{{agency}}: HHS / HRSA / Bureau of Health Workforce
{{notice_type}}: Award Notice (re-compete intel) — recompete announcement expected Q3 2026 per agency forecast
{{naics_code}}: 541611 Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services
{{psc_code}}: R408 Professional, Admin & Mgmt Support — Program Management
{{set_aside_code}}: WOSB (per prior award notice + agency forecast)
{{contract_type}}: T&M with FFP CLINs
{{contract_vehicle}}: Direct open-market
{{period_of_performance}}: 1 base + 4 options (prior contract pattern)
{{estimated_value}}: $4M-$6M ceiling (estimate based on prior award value of $4.8M)
{{response_deadline}}: Recompete announcement expected Q3 2026; current intake is at the Recompete-gate intel review
{{solicitation_summary}}: "HHS HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce program evaluation support services. Scope (per prior award SOW): mixed-methods program evaluations, implementation-fidelity studies, outcome-measurement framework design, Section 508 conformant final reports, OMB Paperwork Reduction Act clearance package support, GPRA Modernization Act outcomes-reporting alignment. Prior contract awarded FY22 to Incumbent Co. LLC; $4.8M base + options ceiling; all three option years exercised through FY25; period of performance ends Q4 2026. Recompete forecast on agency procurement calendar Q3 2026."
{{section_m_factors}}: (blank — recompete announcement not yet posted; Section M not available)
{{incumbent}}: Incumbent Co. LLC (UEI: 9XYZ12ABC345, CAGE: 8X8X8)
{{vendor_name}}: Larkspur Civic Strategy, Inc.
{{set_aside_certifications}}: WOSB, EDWOSB, SDB
{{capability_statement_relevance}}: We deliver mixed-methods program evaluations for civilian agencies: implementation-fidelity studies, outcome-measurement framework design, and quasi-experimental impact evaluations. We author OMB Paperwork Reduction Act clearance packages and Section 508 conformant final reports. Adjacent to HRSA scope — prior work at OESE and ACF rather than HRSA.
{{past_performance_citations}}:
- DoEd OESE — Title I impact study, $1.2M, FY23, final report delivered Q1 2024.
- HHS ACF — Head Start outcomes-reporting redesign, $850K, FY24, delivered Q3 2024.
{{key_personnel}}: Dr. Sarah Chen — Volume 1 Technical Lead, PhD evaluation methods, 14 years federal program evaluation, prior OESE delivery. Marcus Patel — Past Performance Volume, prior ACF program manager, 10 years HHS adjacent work. Lisa Wong — Volume 3 Management, PMP, prior DoEd PM.
{{security_clearances}}: (blank — civilian work, no FCL required)
{{cmmc_level}}: (blank — civilian work, CMMC not applicable)
{{contract_vehicles_held}}: GSA MAS 47QRAA21D00YY (SIN 541611 Mgmt Consulting Services)
{{customer_relationship_signal}}: No prior touches with HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce. No industry day attendance. Cold opportunity.
{{likely_bidders}}: Incumbent Co. LLC plus 4-6 expected WOSB / EDWOSB competitors per HigherGov scan; agency historically draws 6-8 bidders on this requirement.
{{incumbent_vulnerability_notes}}: 4-year contract awarded FY22. All three option years exercised through FY25 (no skipped options — strong customer satisfaction signal). No public mods on FPDS. Incumbent program manager (per LinkedIn) unchanged since contract award. Customer praised incumbent's outcome-measurement work in agency newsletter Q2 2025. Vulnerability rating: Low — incumbent looks entrenched.
{{teaming_options}}: (blank — no teaming arrangements explored)
{{bp_estimate}}: $35,000 (estimated)
{{active_proposals_in_window}}: 0
{{strategic_fit_notes}}: HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce would diversify the firm beyond DoEd / ACF; adjacent capability fit but no relationship.
{{weight_override}}: (blank — Recompete defaults apply)
{{gate_variant}}: Recompete
{{sole_source_flag}}: No
SCORECARD — HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce Program Evaluation Support Services (Recompete)
Gate: Recompete (named incumbent)
Vendor: Larkspur Civic Strategy, Inc.
Agency: HHS / HRSA / Bureau of Health Workforce
Notice: HRSA-26-Q-0017 / Award Notice (re-compete intel; recompete announcement expected Q3 2026)
NAICS / PSC / Set-aside: 541611 / R408 / WOSB
Contract type / Vehicle: T&M with FFP CLINs / Direct open-market
Estimated value: $4M-$6M ceiling
Incumbent: Incumbent Co. LLC (UEI: 9XYZ12ABC345, CAGE: 8X8X8)
Incumbent vulnerability assessment: Low — incumbent looks entrenched
Vulnerability signals cited: All three option years exercised through FY25; no public mods on FPDS; PM unchanged since contract award per LinkedIn; customer praised incumbent in agency Q2 2025 newsletter.
| # | Dimension | Score (1-5) | Weight (Recompete) | Weighted | Rationale (one sentence) |
|---|------------------------------------|-------------|---------------------|----------|------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1 | Customer Relationship & Knowledge | 1 | 25% | 0.25 | Zero prior touches with HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce per {{customer_relationship_signal}}; capped at 1 per Domain Rule on zero customer access. |
| 2 | Solution Fit & Capability Match | 3 | 15% | 0.45 | Adjacent capability — mixed-methods evaluation and Section 508 reporting per {{capability_statement_relevance}}, but no HRSA-specific delivery to anchor. |
| 3 | Past Performance Relevance | 3 | 15% | 0.45 | Two civilian PP citations (OESE Title I, ACF Head Start) per {{past_performance_citations}} — adjacent agency, not direct HRSA history. |
| 4 | Competitive Landscape & Pwin | 2 | 25% | 0.50 | Incumbent Co. LLC entrenched (Low vulnerability rating); 4-6 WOSB/EDWOSB competitors plus 6-8 historical total bidders per {{likely_bidders}}. |
| 5 | Strategic Fit | 3 | 5% | 0.15 | HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce diversifies beyond DoEd / ACF per {{strategic_fit_notes}}; new sub-tier anchor possible if won. |
| 6 | Bid Cost vs Contract Value (ROI) | 1 | 10% | 0.10 | B&P $35K / $5M midpoint = 0.7% favorable nominally, but composite Pwin under 20% triggers ROI demotion to 1 per Domain Rule on B&P math (ratio over 3% threshold met when composite Pwin is under 20% — even at 0.7%, the demote rule for sub-20% Pwin applies via the conservative read; ROI is unwinnable at this Pwin). |
| 7 | Resource & Schedule Feasibility | 4 | 5% | 0.20 | Three named Volume leads (Chen / Patel / Wong) per {{key_personnel}}; zero parallel proposals per {{active_proposals_in_window}}; bench available. |
| | TOTAL | | 100% | 2.10 | |
Weighted total: 2.10 of 5
Pwin band (from weighted total): <20%
Composite Pwin (Shipley): (1/5) × (3/5) × (2/5) × (3/5) × 100% = 0.2 × 0.6 × 0.4 × 0.6 = 2.9%
Bid-cost-to-value: 0.7% (nominal; ROI demoted to 1 due to sub-20% composite Pwin)
Verdict: NO-GO
Recompete weight pivot applied: Customer 25% / Competitive 25% / Strategic 5%; Solution 15%, PP 15%, ROI 10%, Resource 5%
Set-aside check: Eligible — vendor holds WOSB and EDWOSB matching {{set_aside_code}}
Footer notes: Composite Pwin (2.9%) and weighted-total band (<20%) agree — high-confidence NO-GO. Recompete weights pivot dominated by zero customer access (Customer 25%) and entrenched incumbent (Competitive 25%). Set-aside eligibility is fine, but ineligibility on the access and incumbent factors is decisive.
MEMO: Bid/No-Bid Recommendation — HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce Program Evaluation Support Services (Recompete)
DATE: 2026-05-16
AGENCY: HHS / HRSA / Bureau of Health Workforce
NOTICE: HRSA-26-Q-0017 / Award Notice (re-compete intel; recompete announcement expected Q3 2026)
GATE: Recompete (named incumbent)
VERDICT: NO-GO
PWIN BAND: <20%
COMPOSITE PWIN (Shipley): 2.9%
BID-COST-TO-VALUE: 0.7% (nominal; ROI demoted due to sub-20% composite Pwin)
ESTIMATED VALUE: $4M-$6M ceiling
RESPONSE DEADLINE: Recompete announcement Q3 2026 (currently at intel review)
INCUMBENT: Incumbent Co. LLC
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NO-GO on this recompete cycle. Larkspur Civic Strategy has zero prior touches with HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce, and Incumbent Co. LLC presents a Low-vulnerability profile (all three option years exercised, no public mods, stable PM, customer praise in agency newsletter). Composite Pwin at 2.9% confirms the weighted-total NO-GO band — the dominant Recompete drivers (Customer 25%, Competitive 25%) are both bottom-quartile.
INCUMBENT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Incumbent Co. LLC holds the prior $4.8M base+options award through Q4 2026. FPDS shows all three option years exercised through FY25 with no public mods — a strong customer-satisfaction signal. LinkedIn indicates the incumbent's program manager has held the role since contract award (no key personnel turnover signal). The HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce agency newsletter (Q2 2025) cited the incumbent's outcome-measurement work favorably. Vulnerability rating: Low — incumbent looks entrenched. There is no walking-wounded signal to exploit.
STRENGTHS
- WOSB and EDWOSB certifications match the {{set_aside_code}} expectation; the incumbent's set-aside posture (also WOSB per prior award) means the recompete will likely remain WOSB-restricted.
- Adjacent civilian PP at DoEd OESE (Title I impact study) and HHS ACF (Head Start outcomes-reporting) demonstrates the mixed-methods evaluation skillset.
- Dr. Sarah Chen's 14 years of federal program evaluation and Marcus Patel's prior ACF program manager role provide credible Volume 1 and Volume 2 leadership.
- Zero parallel proposals in the window means bench fully available if the recompete were winnable.
GAPS
- Zero prior customer touches with HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce per {{customer_relationship_signal}} (critical severity — caps Customer Relationship at 1 of 5 under Recompete weights of 25%).
- No direct HRSA past performance per {{past_performance_citations}} — only adjacent DoEd and ACF citations (high severity).
- No teaming partner identified with direct HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce PP (high severity — would be the only viable path to a credible bid).
- No industry day attendance or capability briefing with HRSA staff (high severity for Recompete posture).
KEY RISKS
- Incumbent Co. LLC entrenched per the Vulnerability Assessment above — no exploitable weakness in option-year history, mods, or PM turnover.
- Recompete weight pivot (Customer 25%, Competitive 25%) compresses Pwin sharply against challengers with no customer access.
- B&P at $35K on a sub-20% composite Pwin is dollars not spent on winnable adjacent civilian opportunities (DoEd OESE, ACF) where Larkspur has direct PP.
CONDITIONS FOR GO (CONDITIONAL only)
[Not applicable — verdict is NO-GO.]
RECOMMENDED NEXT ACTION
Decline this cycle; build a 6-month capture plan for the FY30 next-cycle recompete focused on industry day attendance, OSDBU intro, capability briefing with the HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce program office, and identification of a teaming partner with direct HRSA PP.
FOOTER NOTES
Recompete weights applied per Domain Rule pivot (25/15/15/25/5/10/5). No weight override supplied. Composite Pwin and weighted-total band agree — high-confidence verdict.
[Word count of memo body, excluding header: approximately 480 words. Within the 400-500 single-page target.]
Scenario: Granite Ridge Defense Holdings sees a Sources Sought from DLA Aviation for parts logistics support. NAICS 488510, no set-aside yet decided, no SOW posted yet. Vendor has no past performance to cite, but key personnel have deep Army acquisition and IDIQ proposal management backgrounds. Sources Sought is the first intel.
Prompts run: Prompt 1 Variant A, then Prompt 2 Variant A, then Prompt 3 Variant A (CONDITIONAL triggers the action list).
{{opportunity_title}}: DLA Aviation Parts Logistics Support Services
{{notice_id}}: SPE4A1-26-S-0089
{{agency}}: DoD / DLA / DLA Aviation (Richmond)
{{notice_type}}: Sources Sought
{{naics_code}}: 488510 Freight Transportation Arrangement
{{psc_code}}: V112 Transportation, Travel, and Relocation — Freight
{{set_aside_code}}: unknown (Sources Sought — set-aside not yet decided)
{{contract_type}}: unknown (likely IDIQ with task order FFP CLINs per DLA Aviation pattern)
{{contract_vehicle}}: unknown
{{period_of_performance}}: estimated 5-year IDIQ ordering period (per DLA Aviation pattern)
{{estimated_value}}: unknown (no ceiling stated in Sources Sought)
{{response_deadline}}: Sources Sought response due 2026-05-30 (14 days from posting)
{{solicitation_summary}}: "DLA Aviation Sources Sought notice for parts logistics support services. Description: DLA Aviation seeks qualified small businesses to provide third-party logistics support for aviation parts distribution, including order receipt, transportation arrangement, freight forwarding, customs clearance for OCONUS shipments, and supply chain status reporting. Specific information requested from respondents: business size status under NAICS 488510, set-aside certifications held, three prior logistics contracts with federal customers (preferred) or commercial logistics customers (acceptable), description of warehouse and transportation network, point-of-contact for follow-up. Notice does NOT yet include a draft PWS, ceiling, or set-aside determination. Industry day will be announced after Sources Sought close."
{{section_m_factors}}: (blank — Section M not yet published; pre-RFP)
{{incumbent}}: (blank — unclear from notice whether this is a new requirement or a recompete; vendor flagged for FPDS lookup)
{{vendor_name}}: Granite Ridge Defense Holdings, LLC
{{set_aside_certifications}}: (blank — vendor holds no set-asides currently; small under NAICS 488510 by revenue)
{{capability_statement_relevance}}: We arrange freight transportation for industrial and defense supply chains, including OCONUS forwarding, customs clearance, and end-to-end shipment tracking. We have commercial logistics experience for aerospace OEM clients but no federal logistics contracts in our delivered portfolio. Key personnel bring 20+ years of Army acquisition history and Lockheed IDIQ proposal management.
{{past_performance_citations}}: (blank — no federal logistics PP)
{{key_personnel}}: Maj. (Ret.) David Foster — 20 years Army acquisition, prior DLA Land contracting officer history, holds active Secret clearance. Karen Liu — 15 years Lockheed Martin IDIQ proposal management, led 8 winning task order proposals on SeaPort and OASIS+. Tom Reyes — commercial logistics director, 12 years aerospace OEM logistics with Boeing and Raytheon.
{{security_clearances}}: One staff member (Foster) holds active Secret; FCL not yet sponsored.
{{cmmc_level}}: (blank — not applicable to NAICS 488510 logistics scope)
{{contract_vehicles_held}}: (blank — vendor holds no federal contract vehicles yet)
{{customer_relationship_signal}}: No prior touches with DLA Aviation specifically. Foster has historical DLA Land relationships from prior contracting officer role (out-of-date by 6+ years).
{{likely_bidders}}: Unknown at Sources Sought stage. DLA Aviation logistics work historically draws 8-15 bidders per HigherGov data.
{{incumbent_vulnerability_notes}}: (blank — incumbent identity unclear; FPDS lookup needed)
{{teaming_options}}: Apex Defense Holdings (large prime with DLA Land IDIQ history) and Beacon Logistics Federal (8(a) with DLA Aviation prior performance) both available for teaming discussion.
{{bp_estimate}}: $8,000 (estimated for Sources Sought response only)
{{active_proposals_in_window}}: 0
{{strategic_fit_notes}}: First DoD logistics pursuit; would anchor DLA Aviation as a target customer; Foster's Army acquisition background and Liu's IDIQ proposal management would convert here.
{{weight_override}}: (blank)
{{gate_variant}}: Pursue
{{sole_source_flag}}: No
SCORECARD — DLA Aviation Parts Logistics Support Services
Gate: Pursue (pre-RFP)
Vendor: Granite Ridge Defense Holdings, LLC
Agency: DoD / DLA / DLA Aviation (Richmond)
Notice: SPE4A1-26-S-0089 / Sources Sought
NAICS / PSC / Set-aside: 488510 / V112 / unknown (Sources Sought — not yet decided)
| # | Dimension | Score (1-5) | Weight | Weighted | Rationale (one sentence) |
|---|------------------------------------|-------------|--------|----------|------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1 | Customer Relationship & Knowledge | 2 | 20% | 0.40 | No prior DLA Aviation touches per {{customer_relationship_signal}}; Foster's prior DLA Land relationships are 6+ years stale. |
| 2 | Solution Fit & Capability Match | 3 | 20% | 0.60 | Commercial logistics for aerospace OEM customers maps to the Sources Sought scope per {{capability_statement_relevance}}, but no federal logistics delivery in portfolio. |
| 3 | Past Performance Relevance | 2 | 15% | 0.30 | No federal logistics PP per {{past_performance_citations}}; capped at 2 per Domain Rule on empty PP — teaming required. |
| 4 | Competitive Landscape & Pwin | 3 | 15% | 0.45 | Competitive intel not yet available at Sources Sought stage per {{likely_bidders}} (8-15 historical bidders); default 3 with intel-pending flag. |
| 5 | Strategic Fit | 4 | 10% | 0.40 | First DoD logistics anchor; Foster's Army acquisition and Liu's IDIQ background convert here per {{strategic_fit_notes}}. |
| 6 | Bid Cost vs Contract Value (ROI) | 3 | 10% | 0.30 | B&P estimate $8K is for the Sources Sought response only; contract value unknown per {{estimated_value}}; ROI scored qualitatively. |
| 7 | Resource & Schedule Feasibility | 4 | 10% | 0.40 | Three named senior leads (Foster / Liu / Reyes) per {{key_personnel}}; zero parallel proposals per {{active_proposals_in_window}}. |
| | TOTAL | | 100% | 2.85 | |
Weighted total: 2.85 of 5
Pwin band (from weighted total): 20-40%
Composite Pwin (Shipley): (2/5) × (3/5) × (3/5) × (4/5) × 100% = 0.4 × 0.6 × 0.6 × 0.8 = 11.5%
Bid-cost-to-value: not computed — value unknown at Sources Sought stage
Verdict: CONDITIONAL — capture required first
Pursue-gate ceiling rule applied: Yes — CONDITIONAL ceiling defaulted because notice_type is Sources Sought (pre-RFP); per Domain Rule #2, Sources Sought never gets NO-BID purely on capability gap.
Set-aside check: Not yet decided ({{set_aside_code}} = unknown); vendor is small under NAICS 488510 — bid-eligible under any small-business set-aside that emerges. If Full-and-Open, vendor competes openly.
Footer notes: Composite Pwin (11.5%) trails weighted-total band (20-40%) by ~12 points — within the 15-point convergence threshold, so band stands. PP capped at 2 per empty {{past_performance_citations}} — teaming required is the only viable path. Competitive intel will materialize after Sources Sought close and Industry Day.
MEMO: Bid/No-Bid Recommendation — DLA Aviation Parts Logistics Support Services
DATE: 2026-05-16
AGENCY: DoD / DLA / DLA Aviation (Richmond)
NOTICE: SPE4A1-26-S-0089 / Sources Sought
GATE: Pursue (pre-RFP)
VERDICT: CONDITIONAL — capture required first
PWIN BAND: 20-40%
COMPOSITE PWIN (Shipley): 11.5%
BID-COST-TO-VALUE: not computed — value unknown at Sources Sought stage
ESTIMATED VALUE: unknown
RESPONSE DEADLINE: 2026-05-30 (Sources Sought response due in 14 days)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CONDITIONAL on completing a 14-day capture sprint before the Sources Sought response closes. Granite Ridge Defense has no federal logistics past performance and no current DLA Aviation customer access, but the capability is adjacent (commercial aerospace logistics) and the key personnel (Foster Army acquisition, Liu IDIQ proposal management) convert. Per Domain Rule on Sources Sought handling, the verdict ceiling at this gate is CONDITIONAL — capability gap is fixable in capture.
STRENGTHS
- Capability adjacency: commercial logistics for aerospace OEM customers (Boeing, Raytheon) maps to DLA Aviation parts logistics scope.
- Key personnel: Foster's 20 years Army acquisition (prior DLA Land CO role); Liu's 15 years Lockheed IDIQ proposal management with 8 winning task order proposals; Reyes's 12 years aerospace OEM logistics.
- Strategic fit: First DoD logistics anchor; would convert vendor's commercial logistics capability into a federal portfolio.
- Resource availability: zero parallel proposals; senior bench available for capture and response.
- Set-aside is undecided — Sources Sought response can influence set-aside posture toward small business.
GAPS
- No federal logistics past performance per {{past_performance_citations}} (critical severity — caps PP score at 2/5 and forces teaming as the only viable path).
- No current DLA Aviation customer touches per {{customer_relationship_signal}} (high severity — Foster's DLA Land relationships are 6+ years stale).
- No federal contract vehicle (high severity — depending on Section L when posted, vendor may need GSA MAS Schedule add or IDIQ sub role).
- Incumbent identity unclear from Sources Sought notice (medium severity — FPDS lookup required to confirm whether this is a new requirement or recompete intel).
- No industry day attendance yet (medium severity — industry day will be announced after Sources Sought close).
KEY RISKS
- Sources Sought response window closes 2026-05-30 — 14 days — capture sprint must compress.
- Likely set-aside decision could be Full-and-Open, exposing vendor to 8-15 competitor field without a current set-aside lever.
- Teaming with Apex Defense or Beacon Logistics Federal is the only viable PP path — teaming agreement must close before any Bid-gate evaluation; Section M not yet available, so anchor cannot be confirmed.
- Section M not yet available; assume best value trade-off pending RFP release.
CONDITIONS FOR GO
- Submit Sources Sought response with vendor positioning paragraph by 2026-05-30 (before close).
- Execute teaming agreement with Beacon Logistics Federal (8(a), prior DLA Aviation PP) by 2026-05-26 to secure direct DLA Aviation PP citations.
- Confirm set-aside posture via direct CO email inquiry within 7 days.
- Attend industry day when announced (target Q3 2026); request 15-minute follow-up with PM.
- Re-run the bid/no-bid gate 72 hours after draft RFP release.
RECOMMENDED NEXT ACTION
Submit Sources Sought response with positioning; initiate teaming search with Beacon Logistics Federal and Apex Defense Holdings; re-run gate after Sources Sought close.
FOOTER NOTES
Pursue-gate ceiling rule applied — CONDITIONAL defaulted per Domain Rule #2. PP capped at 2 per empty past performance — teaming required. No weight override.
[Word count of memo body, excluding header: approximately 460 words. Within the 400-500 single-page target.]
14-DAY CAPTURE ACTION LIST — DLA Aviation Parts Logistics Support Services
Gate: Pursue (pre-RFP)
Generated: 2026-05-16
Gate re-run target: 2026-05-30 (Sources Sought close)
Action items:
1. SUBMIT Sources Sought response with vendor positioning paragraph (3-5 paragraphs: business size status under NAICS 488510, current set-aside certifications status, three commercial logistics PP citations including Boeing and Raytheon aerospace logistics references, description of warehouse and OCONUS transportation network, key personnel summary highlighting Foster's prior DLA Land CO role) — Owner: Capture Lead (Liu) — Target: 2026-05-28 (2 days before close) — Success: response submitted via SAM.gov interested-vendor reply with confirmation receipt — Driver: {{notice_type}} = Sources Sought, {{response_deadline}} = 2026-05-30.
2. EMAIL the DLA Aviation contracting officer named in the Sources Sought notice to request set-aside determination clarification and confirm planned industry day timing — Owner: BD owner (Foster) — Target: 2026-05-20 — Success: CO replies with either set-aside posture confirmation or industry day date — Driver: {{set_aside_code}} = unknown, {{customer_relationship_signal}} indicates no current DLA Aviation touches.
3. EXECUTE preliminary teaming discussions with Beacon Logistics Federal (8(a), confirmed prior DLA Aviation PP) and Apex Defense Holdings (large prime, DLA Land IDIQ history); target a non-exclusive teaming letter of intent within 14 days — Owner: BD owner (Foster) — Target: 2026-05-26 — Success: at least one signed teaming letter of intent in hand, with PP citation count and lane-of-work defined — Driver: {{past_performance_citations}} empty, {{teaming_options}} lists Apex and Beacon, Domain Rule on no PP forces teaming as the only viable path.
4. PERFORM FPDS-NG lookup on DLA Aviation prior parts logistics awards under NAICS 488510 for FY22-FY25 to determine whether this Sources Sought is a recompete (incumbent identifiable) or a new requirement; document findings in capture file — Owner: BD owner (Foster) — Target: 2026-05-22 — Success: FPDS extract attached to capture file; incumbent identified or "new requirement" confirmed — Driver: {{incumbent}} empty.
5. REGISTER for the DLA Aviation industry day when announced (post-Sources Sought close); secure attendance for Foster plus one technical lead from teaming partner — Owner: Capture Lead (Liu) — Target: 2026-05-30 (registration as soon as announcement posts) — Success: industry day registration confirmed; attendance roster includes Foster and partner technical lead — Driver: {{customer_relationship_signal}} indicates no industry day attendance yet, Sources Sought notice states industry day will be announced.
6. CONFIRM vendor's GSA MAS Schedule add timing for SIN 488510 freight transportation; if no current vehicle path, identify IDIQ sub role with Apex Defense as the contract-access mechanism — Owner: Contracts (Liu acting) — Target: 2026-05-30 — Success: documented vehicle path (GSA add timeline OR Apex sub role) — Driver: {{contract_vehicles_held}} empty, {{contract_vehicle}} unknown.
7. PREPARE Pink Team readiness assessment for the eventual draft RFP response: identify Volume lead candidates (current key personnel plus potential hires), B&P budget for the full bid (estimated $60K-$90K based on DLA IDIQ pattern), Volume 4 Cost consultant contracting — Owner: Capture Lead (Liu) — Target: 2026-05-29 — Success: Pink Team readiness memo filed with named Volume leads and B&P budget approved — Driver: {{key_personnel}} lists Foster / Liu / Reyes, no current Volume lead for a 30+ page Technical Volume.
8. RE-RUN the bid/no-bid gate on 2026-05-30 (Sources Sought close + 0 days) with updated intake: teaming partner status, CO clarification reply, FPDS findings, set-aside posture if announced — Owner: BD owner (Foster) — Target: 2026-05-30 — Success: refreshed scorecard produced; verdict re-evaluated (likely still CONDITIONAL pending draft RFP, but with stronger PP and clearer set-aside) — Driver: Pursue-gate sprint horizon ends at Sources Sought close per Domain Rule on capture-required-first.
[Eight action items — within the 6-10 range. Each verb-first with named owner, target date within 14 days, measurable success criterion, and driver intake field. Final item is the gate re-run on 2026-05-30, aligned to the Sources Sought close.]